BREXIT 3rd Anniversary

BREXIT – Third Anniversary

Table of Contents

The Timeline 2
The Referendum 23/06/2016 For 52% Against 48% 2
A campaign of Lies 2
THE FACTS 2
The money paid by the UK to EU was made up from: 2
More Lies 3
‘A free-trade deal with the EU will be ‘the easiest thing in human history’ 3
I rest my case! 3
Conclusion 3
Referenda 4

I am well aware that politics is always a dangerous topic for any writer and the topic of BREXIT might even be seen as suicidal – given the depth and divergence of views held.

But I am still going for it – for a number of, what I consider, logical and factual reasons, I am now in a position to make a fully informed view of both the BREXIT process and the consequences –

in view of the facts that:

I spent the best part of my working life in international trade -specifically Export Management.

I was the Export Manager of a medium sized manufacturing company for seven years from the age of 24.

Qualified with Credit for the UK Institute of Export Professional Diploma in International Trade.

Won- North West Export Year Expert competition- 1977.

Twenty years full time FE Lecturer and Course Tutor (latter half as a Senior Lecturer) for all International Trade courses.

Fifteen + years as a self-employed Trainer, eriter and Consultant in International Trade.

Published three major textbooks and a number of Handbooks and articles.

Led about 12 student visits to the institutions of the European Union. (See ‘EU Trip – Part 1, 2, 3, & Epilogue).

N.B. If, at any point, you find it heavy going – do your best – but if you find it too hard going – please just go straight to the Conclusion – and then you can give in!

one of my points is that the BREXIT debate is a complex one – and totally unsuited to a referendum type vote. I hope that, if you persevere with reading, that some of that complexity might be resolved.

Timeline

The Referendum 23/06/2016 For 52% Against 48%

David Cameron Resigns 24/06/2016

UK Leaves the EU 31/01/2020

A campaign of Lies

The big one:
• ‘The money saved from leaving the EU will provide the NHS with extra funding of £350m per week.’

Supposedly the benefit of the UK ceasing to be be a net contributor (i.e. paying in more money to the EU than was received out)

THE FACTS
The money paid by the UK to EU was primarily made up of:

 All import duties – collected on UK imports from non-EU countries – were based on the Common Customs Tariff which governed all EU members. That is that any imports from a non-EU country were treated in exactly the same way wherever they entered the EU and – any revenue collected by UK Customs authorities i.e. duties, levies and penalties were EU revenue – not the UK’s and, following a deduction for the cost of collection, were therefore paid back to the EU.

Plus, a percentage (was then 11%) of VAT collected in the UK. A VAT type tax system being a requirement for joining the EU. VAT was payable on all imports as well as all value-added transactions within the UK.

The fact that the UK was one of the largest EU importers of goods from non-EU suppliers – a hangover from our historic commonwealth connections – was the major contributor to the UK being a net contributor of import duties to the EU.

The EU’s argument was – ‘If you buy more from fellow EU members then there is no duty to pay back’.

The fact is that none of those elements of the UK’s contribution was directly taxpayer’s money or funded by government budgets – it was EU revenues collected by the UK and transferred – less the cost of collection.

It also ignored the EU payments in the form of agricultural subsidies and funding for deprived regions – in 2017, for example – Wales was a net beneficiary of £245 m.

The Rebate

Undoubtedly, the biggest lie of them all.

The number 350m was, apparently, roughly calculated by taking the UK’s largest annual contribution to the EU budget – which they said was £19b, and dividing it by 52 weeks.

I cannot find that exact figure in any official statistics – but I can confirm, that the gross figure in 2017 was £18.6 b – so maybe they just rounded that up by the odd £400m, so it was easier to divide.?

`A minor matter when you are told that actually, in 2017, that gross payment was reduced by a rebate paid back to the UK, by the EU of £5.6b i.e. the UK actually paid £13.6b.

A large amount, of course, but so is the £5.6b repayment, that they, apparently, forgot.

So, could they, have just forgetten about the rebate?

It’s hard to believe that Dominic Cummings and his gang could forget the ‘triumph’ of Maggie Thatcher just seven years earlier – in re-negotiating the amount of the annual rebate. She went wanting 66% – she got about 30% payback which was trumpeted as a win.

I have looked hard – and the proposed police investigation into the false claims of the ‘Vote Leave’ group – appears to have disappeared into the ether.No public report – no action at all.

AND – if we ignore everything else – any money actually saved through BREXIT could not just be promised to the NHS – the Treasury would have a lot to say about it, of course.

More Lies

‘Turkey is going to join the EU and millions of them will flock to an open UK’

Turkey didn’t and hasn’tjoined . – it’s initial application, has been ‘frozen’ for many years and based on its currentand growing political instability – is unlikely be allowed to join any time in the future.

‘A free-trade deal with the EU will be ‘the easiest thing in human history”

Liam Fox – International Trade Secretary.

Almost laughable – I rest my case!

The Inescapable fact is that the ‘LEAVE’ campaign was based on deliberate lies – not just mis-information – because they knew they were lying. They were desperate, at any cost, to get a ‘LEAVE’ vote – and they got it – just.

The cost to the UK is only now becoming clear and measurable.

AL- Conclusion

If you got this far well done – though it wasn’t meant to be a test.

My final point is that – the argument is obviously a complex one – I accept that I may have gone over the top with the level of detail – but I could have included a lot more.
I chose not to assemble all the negative current forecasts of the economic future of the UK from independent sources – all based on the realities of the last three years.

But can’t resist a couple of quick ones.:

E.G. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that the UK will have negative growth in the next few years – our gross output / and therefore earnings will fall by a minimum of) 0.6%. and that we will have the lowest growth rate within the G7 developed countries.

Bloomberg have estimated that BREXIT has cost the UK £100 billion each year, since we left.

In case you can’t tell – I was a committed ‘Remainer’

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Referenda

The underlying issue is, I believe – that a simple ‘yes – no’ referendum is not appropriate to such a complex issue – in fact is totally inappropriate.

Referenda work to assess matters of opinion where everyone is able to make a sensible choice without needing any technical knowledge.

So, a referendum on – “do you think that capital punishment should be re-introduced for criminals who kill Police Officers?’

Everybody can have a valid opinion which is the same value as anyone else’s.

BREXIT was a lottery and many people voting had a narrow view of the issues.

The very final point – a recent national survey conducted by the Independent i.e. middle of the road) as to how people might vote in a repeat referendum (I know it’s very unlikely) – predicted that 65% of Britons support a second referendum, with the majority polled also believing the UK’s global influence and ability to control its borders have worsened since leaving the EU.